How long will the Government shutdown last? (poll)

[Uniform Two Six]

Well, I figured that I'd throw this one out. The last one was three weeks, and the one before that was a month. If it was possible, I'd start taking bets -- although, I wouldn't be surprised if there actually are odds going in Vegas on this stupid thing.

On an aside, I'd like to throw my $.02 in and say that I think we're witnessing the practical outcome of gerrymandering in this silly debacle. We've got the Speaker of the House kowtowing to a tiny minority (as in the Tea Party), even at the expense of ticking off the rank and file in the Republican Party. I find it bewildering that the Tea Party can lock up the entire system anytime they want. Worse, they know that they're going to lose, but they're doing it anyway. That bunch is seriously nutty.

[Volkodlak]

dont worry they will fix the problem fast i give them one week

[Uniform Two Six]

Actually, that option was sort of a trick question -- "one week" is actually tomorrow.

Anyway, I disagree. The Tea Party is so wrapped around the axle on this Obamacare issue, that they (and more worryingly, their constituency) are actually pleased that they've forced a financial shutdown of the government. The longer this drags on, the better they look to their lunatic political base. I think the real test is how long it takes for the rest of the Republicans to feel enough pain that they revolt against Boehner (who, incidentally, has little love for the Tea Party whack-jobs, but has to give them what they want or risk losing the speakership). Lockheed-Martin will start laying-off several thousand workers here shortly, since they're pretty much solely dependent upon defense contracts. Maybe we'll see some movement when that happens, but I'm not terribly optimistic. Although, I will say that we've apparently found a novel way to de-fund the F-35A Lightning.

[Volkodlak]

ok i give them one week from today on.Uniform i kinda heard if this shutdown isnt cancled until october 15 USA will bankrupt is it true?

[Uniform Two Six]

Well, not exactly. The U.S. Government is not going to go bankrupt -- since it always has the option of simply printing more money to cover its expenses. What's going on is a little more nuanced. You're actually talking about two separate issues which are happening near to the same time:

1. The government shutdown: The current "budget" impasse is basically the result of the House of Representatives (where by law, all appropriations bills are required to originate) being unable to pass an appropriations bill. And even that is more nuanced. They actually did pass a bill, but to appease the Tea Party extremists in the Republican Party, it omitted any funds for a new public healthcare system for the poor, which was part of a wide-ranging new healthcare law (commonly known as "Obama-care"). As a result, the Senate (which must authorize any such bills) returned it to the House of Representatives for modification (I think the term is actually "Conference" or something). Basically, the Senate told the House that they needed to actually fund the healthcare law (since it was a duly ratified law, and thus by law, they're required to do so). In reality, there are enough votes even within the Republican Party to pass such a bill, but for political reasons, the Speaker of the House is refusing to put any such "Clean" resolution up for a vote -- because he knows it would pass. Until this changes, no spending has been authorized for the current period, and so the government can't spend any money (aside from certain "essential" critical functions like the military). The point being that it is not a matter of the U.S. not having the money, but the House won't authorize disbursement.

2. Increasing the "debt-ceiling": In a couple of weeks, the Congress will also be required to increase the authorized borrowing limit for the government. If they don't, then the Treasury can't issue any further bonds (commonly known as Treasury Bills, or "T-bills"). At that point, the Government won't have enough money to meet its financial obligations (regardless of what the House passes with regard to appropriations). At that point, the Treasury Department will have to decide which expenses to pay first, and which won't be paid as a result. The smart money is that they'll start with so-called "debt-maintenance", which is a fancy way of saying interest payments on outstanding T-bills. At that point the U.S. Government will be in default on its financial obligations. That's not exactly the same as bankruptcy (which can still happen at lower levels of government, such as at the State, County, or Municipal level).

The politics of this are very convoluted and sort of absurd, but remember that if worse comes to pass, the U.S. always reserves the option of simply printing its way out of the mess. The down-side is that's what certain third-world countries do whenever they get into trouble. It's why the Mexican Peso, or the Iranian Rial aren't common instruments of foreign exchange, while the Euro, or the American Dollar are (at least for the moment).

[Volkodlak]

ok, but if US start printing more money US dollar should lose some value

[Terastas]

Twenty Republicans congressmen have already signaled, publicly, that they would support the "clean" spending bill. Which, along with the two hundred Democrats in the House, gives the bill enough votes to pass.

So the only holdout is John Boehner, who is evidently so terrified of losing his speakership to the tea-baggers that he forbids to allow the bill up for a vote. He claims, of course, that there aren't enough votes in the House, but by withholding the bill, he's refusing to substantiate his claims.

But the other thing looming overhead is the 2014 midterms, and this debacle already has seventeen G.O.P. congressmen polling behind their most likely Democratic challengers. An extended shutdown, or worse, a default, would blow their approval ratings to smithereens and likely cost Boehner his congressional seat in addition to his speakership (assuming the angry mobs didn't get him first).

So I'm confident he'll cave sooner or later. Probably not until the very last minute, but by then it'll just be him and the Tea Party's devout anarchists that are still holding out.

[Uniform Two Six]

ok, but if US start printing more money US dollar should lose some value

Some? With sheer scale of our deficit right now, if we were to finance through printing, the Dollar would experience hyperinflation the likes of which I don't think we've seen since 1930s Weimar Germany.

Now, that said, there actually is some rationale for doing this (in an extreme situation, perhaps): Since our national debt is expressed in dollars, then devaluation of the dollar by its very nature also devalues our debt as well. Nonetheless, the other effects of this scenario are sufficiently frightening that I think the Federal Reserve will elect to just default instead (which will simply destroy the Treasury Bill as a financial instrument).

Twenty Republicans congressmen have already signaled, publicly, that they would support the "clean" spending bill. Which, along with the two hundred Democrats in the House, gives the bill enough votes to pass.

Which was generally surmised before even going into the shutdown. The (more) moderate Republicans might not particularly like Obama-care, but if they've got defense contractors contributing to their campaigns, they like the shutdown far less.

So the only holdout is John Boehner, who is evidently so terrified of losing his speakership to the tea-baggers that he forbids to allow the bill up for a vote. He claims, of course, that there aren't enough votes in the House, but by withholding the bill, he's refusing to substantiate his claims.

But the other thing looming overhead is the 2014 midterms, and this debacle already has seventeen G.O.P. congressmen polling behind their most likely Democratic challengers. An extended shutdown, or worse, a default, would blow their approval ratings to smithereens and likely cost Boehner his congressional seat in addition to his speakership (assuming the angry mobs didn't get him first).

I think this is an important point. If there's going to be any movement on this thing, they (the Democrats) need to hit Boehner where he's going to feel it. They need to either take a 'stick' approach and make it clear that he's going to lose the speakership if this thing drags on (something that he's probably already thinking about pretty hard), or they could take the 'carrot' approach and make a deal with him that if he caves and puts the "clean" CR up for the full vote and gets challenged by the Tea Party in an attempt to unseat him, then the Democrats will support him in lieu of Pelosi. The latter option is sort of radical in concept, and would require some serious arm twisting by the minority whip and the President, but it could work in the end.

So I'm confident he'll cave sooner or later.

You are more of an optimist than I, sir.

[Volkodlak]

USA is losing trust and The European Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China (PBC) have agreed to start supplying each other with their currencies, avoiding the dollar as an intermediary currency.Lets wait for Thursday then we will see what will hapen.

[Terastas]

Stupid sumbitch Boehner can't even get his phony compromise to the floor anymore.

Obama and the White House have already stated that they question the constitutionality behind it, but I have a feeling Section 4 of Amendment 14 is going to get invoked to raise the debt limit. The constitutionality of it has never actually been tested (because Congress has never been this stupid either), but I would loooooove to see all those tea-bagger anarchists start throwing a tantrum because Obama denied them their default. Especially right before the 2014 midterms.

Boehner, meanwhile, will be lucky if he even lives long enough to lose his seat in Congress if you ask me. They have a 74% disapproval rating -- that means over two hundred million people in America alone are pissed the bloody hell off at him. With numbers like that, there's got to be at least one of them crazy and/or pissed off enough to try those "Second Amendment remedies" the tea-baggers love to holler about.

[Volkodlak]

today is D-Day for this shutdown if they dont reach the deal in next 12 hours things could become worse than they already are

[Uniform Two Six]

Well, that was close. Looks like we're going to go through this again in January. Ugh.

[Terastas]

Well, that was close. Looks like we're going to go through this again in January. Ugh.

Probably another one, yes, but I doubt it will be exactly this again. They willfully caused the government shutdown, but for every one like Michele Bachmann, John Fleming or Ted Yoho who were celebrating the shutdown and/or default, there were ten to twenty more who were pretending to be disgusted by it and trying to blame Obama and Reid for it.

That ruse didn't work. A good chunk of them are now polling behind Democrats even in their heavily gerrymandered districts, and a lot of them who were just trying to avoid Tea Party primary challengers, the Tea Parties have since announced are going to be challenged anyway.

So we're still going to see Ted Cruz, Mike Lee and some other anarchist douchebags screaming for a shutdown fight, but I think we're also going to see some of those previously kowtowed Republicans try to salvage their poll numbers by establishing themselves as an anti-Cruz. Cruz will become in 2014 what George W. Bush was in 2008 -- that one Republican all the other Republicans will be trying to pretend they always hated (only this time, they'll mean it).

[Uniform Two Six]

Actually, I think it will be interesting to see if Cruz keeps his seat in the next go-around. Texas is defense-contractor intensive and a whole lot of them are hurting because of this thing. I disagree with you about most of these Tea Party whackos (as in, their districts are so idiotically drawn, that Charles Manson could get himself elected if he mouthed off the right stuff regarding taxes), but Ted Cruz is a senator and you can't gerrymander a whole state.

EDIT:

...and some other anarchist douchebags...

On first bounce I misread that as "anti-Christ"...

[Terastas]

I disagree with you about most of these Tea Party whackos (as in, their districts are so idiotically drawn, that Charles Manson could get himself elected if he mouthed off the right stuff regarding taxes)

There's a limit to how much even hardline conservatives will tolerate from their party. Todd Akin learned that one the hard way.

Even the severely gerrymandered House districts have proven not to be completely resistant to the G.O.P.'s suicidal stupidity. In 2012, Allen West lost his seat, and Michele Bachmann almost lost hers. Now as a result of the shutdown, all of the following G.O.P. Reps. are polling behind Democrats:

Jeff Denham (California-10)
Gary Miller (California-31)
Mike Coffman (Colorado-06)
Steve Southerland (Florida-02)
Daniel Webster (Florida-10)
Rodney Davis (Illinois-13)
Tom Latham (Iowa-03)
Steve King (Iowa-04)
Andy Barr (Kentucky-06)
Dan Benishek (Michigan-01)
Tim Walberg (Michigan-07)
Kenny Bentivolio (Michigan-11)
Michael Grimm (New York-11)
Chris Gibson (New York-19)
Thomas Reed (New York-23)
David Joyce (Ohio-14)
Pat Meehan (Pennsylvania-07)
Mike Fitzpatrick (Pennsylvania-08)
Sean Duffy (Wisconsin-07)
Scott Rigell (Virginia-02)

And that list is only going to get bigger thanks to the Tea Party tantrum over the fact that the government didn't default. Other G.O.P. senators and representatives that should have been reliably safe, the Tea Parties have announced their intent to challenge at the primaries. So in addition to likely losing all of the above seats to Democrats, they are also liable to lose otherwise electable candidates to completely unelectable Tea Party extremists before then.

Everyone, even the most ardent extremist, has a point too extreme for them to tolerate -- a point that, if their preferred candidate ever crossed, would cause even the birthers and conspiracy theorists to drop him/her like a lead turd. For most people, a lot of the G.O.P. House has already crossed that point, as their upcoming losses in even their hardline Republican districts will demonstrate.

[Uniform Two Six]

I'd have to disagree to an extent. I'm not inclined to pay much attention to what the polls are showing now. What's important is what the polls show at election time. I don't think that the government shutdown will be at the fore in the mind of the average American in a year. The American attention span just isn't that long. If Obamacare continues to be glitchy when it comes time to vote, that will sway vastly more voters than what happened in the misty, vague, and distant past (like last month, maybe). On the other hand, I'm hopefully optimistic that the Republicans' general hostility to immigration issues will continue to leach votes away to the Dems since (with the possible exception of the Irish), I don't think there's an ethnic group that they haven't alienated yet. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if much of the current polling trends are more the result of the immigration issue, rather than the fiscal stuff.

[Terastas]

I'd have to disagree to an extent. I'm not inclined to pay much attention to what the polls are showing now. What's important is what the polls show at election time. I don't think that the government shutdown will be at the fore in the mind of the average American in a year. The American attention span just isn't that long. If Obamacare continues to be glitchy when it comes time to vote, that will sway vastly more voters than what happened in the misty, vague, and distant past (like last month, maybe). On the other hand, I'm hopefully optimistic that the Republicans' general hostility to immigration issues will continue to leach votes away to the Dems since (with the possible exception of the Irish), I don't think there's an ethnic group that they haven't alienated yet. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if much of the current polling trends are more the result of the immigration issue, rather than the fiscal stuff.

They're going to plow through this crap all over again in January. That will certainly remind everyone.

[Uniform Two Six]

Good point. I hadn't thought of that. With any luck the Tea Party will continue to be completely tone-deaf and pull a stunt like that come election time. Now that I think about it, if Boehner has an sense at all, he'll subtly steer the Tea Party idiots like Cruz into doing exactly that. That way he can be rid of them (albeit at the risk of losing the speakership should the Democrats win back a majority in the House).

On another, slightly related topic: I really hope they get the Obama-Care website fixed by that point. This is yet another example of why you need to actually listen to your IT guys when they tell you something isn't ready for launch yet(as America Online didn't once upon a time).

[Uniform Two Six]

Holy cr@p! They passed the debt-ceiling (and practically nobody noticed). Maybe the Tea Party has finally thrown in the towel.

[Volkodlak]

Holy cr@p! They passed the debt-ceiling (and practically nobody noticed). Maybe the Tea Party has finally thrown in the towel.

didnt they rised debt celling or they are trying too hide it?

[Uniform Two Six]

Well, yes and no.

Boehner was trying to get the debt-ceiling passed by relying only on the Republicans, so that there would not be a schism that could be used by the Tea Party during the next round of primaries. Unfortunately, the whackos didn't want to play ball, so to minimize the damage that the Republicans would incur from the moderate majority of voters, he just detoured around the extremists and shoved it onto the floor for a straight up-or-down vote, and the Democrats passed it. Predictably, the Tea Party idiots are quietly in full revolt behind closed doors because they wanted another shutdown. Boehner is trying to keep this below the radar as far as the public is concerned because the Republicans come off as irrational fools, and the more attention is paid, the more vocal and unruly the whack-jobs in his party get.

[Terastas]

Holy cr@p! They passed the debt-ceiling (and practically nobody noticed). Maybe the Tea Party has finally thrown in the towel.

More likely, the rest of Washington has figured out that 99.9% of their threats are empty. Like I noted earlier, a lot of Republicans who went along with the shutdown hoping to avoid Tea Party challengers are getting challenged anyway -- even staunch hardliners who have never supported the ACA, the tea-baggers are declaring to be too liberal. They are incapable of delivering upon most of their threats, and when they can deliver, they are impossible to appease.

The only problem is that, for the G.O.P. to keep all of its seats, they can't just avoid another debt ceiling shutdown, they need to get everyone to forget about the first one. Which won't happen if Ted Cruz and the tea-baggers throw a temper tantrum every time the government avoids another one.

[Uniform Two Six]

Ted Cruz may not be around much longer. He's apparently ticked off both McConnel and McCain. You can get away with that garbage in the House, but I think ol' Ted is about to find out the hard way that the Senate doesn't work that way. Politically, I think he's screwed. The mainstream Republicans all hate his guts.

[Terastas]

The problem is that I don't think Ted Cruz gives a flying crap what the Senate or House thinks of him. He's even sufficiently proven that he doesn't care what the entire country as a whole thinks of him.

All Cruz wants to do is pander to the psychotic party-before-country anything-to-stick-it-to-President-Blackenstein hyper-minority of the country, and those people can't get enough of him. He doesn't care to accomplish anything; he cares to fund raise off of the lunatics so he can run for POTUS (or act like he's going to run for POTUS, then take the money and run).

[Uniform Two Six]

I'm sure that's all he's thinking about, but he has to get the entire state of Texas to vote for him, and the Lone Star State also happens to be fairly defense-contractor-intensive. His base (from a campaign contribution perspective) took a pretty good hit during the shutdown. I'm not so sure he's all that bulletproof anymore. Or, at least I can hope.