WolvenOne wrote:Okay that wasn't clear enough for my tastes.
What I meant is that the market can fully support two consoles, and can hold a 3rd console on by a thread. Right now the markets in a peculior position in that one console is more then fully supported and the remaining two are holding on by 2 or 3 threads. It's a precarious position that I do not believe can last forever, so I believe things will change during the next generation here.
Actually, in the end all participants take a loss on the production of their systems, but make up for those losses and thensome with the distribution of their games.
One thing can be certain: it won't be Nintendo that craps out because, though their constant repitition of mascot titles causes others to shy away towards their competitors (like me), their big hits with long-time gamers and fans of the previous titles. Nintendo is no longer the #1 gaming company, but they have a steady market that they can depend on to carry them into the next console war. That and the fact that cartridge games are frowned upon due to their greater expense and non-backwards compatability, so while Nintendo is no longer the video game giant, they have no competition.
In the past, that left Sega and a third-party candidate to compete for the alternative market, which is now the CD gaming console battle. Sega used to always win on this alternative market (back when all games were consoles) because the competition was crap (Atari Jaguar, for example), but this all changed when Sony entered the console wars with a great strategy, and Sega did something really stupid.
As I said, in the end, they always lose on the systems but if they play their cards right, they make up for it with the games. Sony's simple strategy was therefore to allow as many 3rd party distributors to format for their system as possible, giving Sony's PS the most extensive list of gaming options available, a natural turn-on for avid gamers, almost turning the PS into the experimental release machine for risky titles like
Grand Theft Auto and
Carnage Heart.
Sega, on the other hand, seemed to think it's best bet was to release it's Saturn as soon as possible, and crapped out a bunch of games with graphics that made them look like sophomore highschool Poser projects. They repeated this mistake of early-release sucker sales when they released the Dreamcast, which in all fairness only had graphics that
matched the quality of N64 and PS1, so when GameCube and PS2 hit the market, Dreamcast fell off of it. Now Sega is just a 3rd party distributor on the PS2.
That left a gap for Microsoft to make way for it's X-Box, which they almost screwed up on before it had even hit the shelves. Bill Gates's big marketing plan, it appears, was to format the X-Box to play PS2 games so that his system could play all PS2 releases
and the few original titles he dreamed up that wouldn't be available on PS2. Naturally, Sony put an end to this, although if you browse the gaming section at your local movie rentals, you'll notice that Microsoft's marketing strategy hasn't changed much. As I said before, a lot of Microsoft's best titles, the GTA games, the Sims games, etc., had already been available for the PS2 beforehand.
Plus, Bill Gates and Microsoft are universally resented due to their bully marketing towards companies like Corel and Netscape, his failed bully tactics against Sony, and most of all, the conspiracy theory that Bill Gates intentionally infects his software with viruses so his consumers will be forced to buy upgrades. A lot of people I know said they didn't buy the X-Box simply because they thought Bill Gates was rich enough as is.
There will still be a small market for X-Box because some people (for some reason) would rather have a system that can only play good titles (most of which were proven to be good titles by the PS2), but once again, the PS2 library dwarfs the opposition. Hands down: Sony is now the console gaming giant.
Though I doubt this is the last we'll be seeing of Nintendo or Microsoft either. Nintendo, as I said before, has a smaller market than Sony's, but doesn't have any actual competitors and can therefore rest assured that their smaller portion of the market won't be moved in on. And if Microsoft continues to rely on PS2's best titles for the major portion of its profits, they won't profit either. However, X-Box fans can rest assured that the console won't be dying any time soon simply because Bill Gates is the richest asshole on the planet; he'll continue to run the X-Box the way he does for the same reason Donald Trump still sells bottled water; their too full of themselves to admit that the business venture is a total failure, and as long as their other companies are booming, they can afford to maintain the charade.
The only way Sony or Microsoft could squeeze out the other would be if they secured the copyrights to their top titles the same way Nintendo has secured all of their mascot titles. I doubt that either will succeed at this because Sony's strategy (apparently) is to let their countless 3rd party distributors manage themselves, and Microsoft certainly would love to acquire said rights, but none of the top developers (Maxis, Rockstar, etc.) would ever in their right minds sell their distribution rights exclusively to Microsoft because they know that, thanks to Bill's lousy marketing and the natural resentment towards him (among consumers and 3rd party distributors alike), the X-Box market is, by comparrison, dead.
That said, Sony will remain the giant so long as no other companies challenge their position, but gamers will always be able to recognize the hottest titles by sight of the phrase "available for Playstation and X-Box."