Next Gen Gaming Cost Claims, Bogus?

[WolvenOne]

For awhile gaming companies have been claiming that game development costs could go through the roof, that some titles could cost more then 10 million dollars to develop.

However, CESA has gathered voluntary information from publishers on current gen gaming development costs, and it just doesn't add up.

The PS2's average game development cost is under 1 milliion dollars. Or to be precise.... $877,634 Even if you tripled that for next gen games, it'd still only cost $2,632,802, a far cry from 10 million.

Costs for GameCube development is actually even lower, while development costs for Xbox titles are significantly higher. Now those two consoles are about equally powerful so the development costs must be grounded in other factors.

However, long story short, even if you took development costs for X-Box games and doubled it, it STILL wouldn't cost half as much as developers are claiming it'll be.

So, I'm wondering, do you folks think the developers are just pulling everybodies legs? Trying to justify a price hike for games? Or is there something I'm not seeing?

[outwarddoodles]

Well, if the things Vuldari has posted and talked about are right, then I can imagine the new Nitendo system may cost some money in development. I'd imagine for every little things there needs to be alot of work done, and the fact that movies we see at movie theatres sure cost alot of money. So I guess it's easy to tell and average Joe/Jane that this system cost $10million to create and they'll beleive it.

I don't know for sure if these new systems are truly going to cost $10million to create. Theres a posibility for it to be a sceme to it;
- Look like its much better and has greater technology, $10 million to design sure must mean this thing is the newst of all things, and has great technology.
-Make us pay more

Though I don't know what to say whether or not they're pulling our legs, I'm not good at judging that.

*resists urge to choose 'Llama?'*

[WolvenOne]

Well, the most expensive period in development for a console is always the first year, year-n-a-half. Typically development costs go down drastically after they've bought the new machines and new staff neccesery to create those games.

So the period after the first year should be more indicitive of the majority of the consoles lifespan.

[Vuldari]

I voted the amusing "Llama" option, because I think the answer is both Yes AND No.

The standards of what gamers expect from Videogames is steadily rising, and so it is becomming increasingly difficult to live up to our expectations.

Therefore, I can definatly see SOME games costing that much to develop, or even more, especially if developers continue to draw upon outside talent to enhance their games appeal. (Such as Celebrity Voice actors... Live, recorded game soundtracks, (by REAL bands and Orchestras)... professional script writers/ novelists to write the game plots and stories...and Well known animators/ artists to create the game characters and dramatic, "movie-like" Cut-Scenes)

Plus, with 3D game environments becoming larger and larger, with higher and higher amounts of detail, game developers need more and more programers and artists to create it all in a reasonable amount of time. (Before gamers grow tired of waiting for it). Somebody has to pay all those peoples paychecks.

So yeah..."average" cost of game development will gradually rise. ...though not quite to the extreme that some have suggested.

Indeed. As the development kits become more refined, and the game developers become accustomed to working with the hardware, the process will smooth out and become more cost-efficient.

Also, Nintendo has allready mentioned that they are designing the Revolution to be really easy to make games for, and are actually encouraging new, up-start developers to make small, simple, "cheap" games for the Revolution system. The more the merrier. (so long as they are not total $%#).


So...they are not right out LYING to us...just exagerating a bit...

[WolvenOne]

I selected "Yes," of course, cause even though it's going up somewhat, I do believe they're exagerating to make an early next gen price hike more PR friendly.

Though I suspect that within 14 months of each consoles launch the prices will go back down to 50 bucks for new titles. That first year tends to be the most expensive anyway so they would lose a lot of thier justification for it. Plus, it becomes more difficult to sell games later as the new-ness factor wears off.

However the Llama option was meant as an opt out or as a "in the middle," response. So you were perfectly justified as selecting that as your answer. ;)

[Figarou]

High prices for these games are just plain silly. It just causes more people to get there consoles modified to play burned copies. That means they lose alot of money on the software side. They need to find a way to bring the prices down if they want people to buy the game titles.

[WolvenOne]

Mass piracy within the first year is...... unlikely, especially for the PS3, which is using Blu-Ray rather then DVD.

Anti-Piracy schemes take time to break after all.... and after the first year prices are likely to come down, just like the did for the Nintendo 64

[Figarou]

Mass piracy within the first year is...... unlikely, especially for the PS3, which is using Blu-Ray rather then DVD.

Anti-Piracy schemes take time to break after all.... and after the first year prices are likely to come down, just like the did for the Nintendo 64

On the consoles, you mean? Sure, they knock down the price when they take some of the bells and whistles out.

Then before you know it, out comes a completly new design thats not compatible with the accessories thats already out.

For example. The slim PS2 can't utilize the hard drive.

[WolvenOne]

The Slim PS2 isn't cheaper either. You're paying for having a more compact package there.

Prices do come down though actually, on the game development side of things. After they're done buying new computer systems, training new programers and building new game engines, game development work starts streamlining really fast.

[Figarou]

Well, I just hope there is no design flaws with the next gen-consoles. The 1st PS2 had problems reading the disc when dust settles on the lens after the cooling fans draws them in. Who knows how the next gen cosoles are kept cool. I know this.......the faster the processor, the hotter it gets.

[WolvenOne]

Supposedly both the PS3 and Xenon are using liquid cooling systems.

[Figarou]

Supposedly both the PS3 and Xenon are using liquid cooling systems.

Oooooo..ok smart move. I guess I don't have to worry about dust getting inside the console from a fan.

[WolvenOne]

There's still going to be a fan to keep the liquid cool. However it'll be a lot less powerful then it would be if it were not water cooled.

Also, this fan will mainly be cooling the liquid, which will be located a good far deal away from the rest of the vital componenents. Which should minamize the possability of it causing trouble.

[Lupin]

Mass piracy within the first year is...... unlikely, especially for the PS3, which is using Blu-Ray rather then DVD.

Anti-Piracy schemes take time to break after all.... and after the first year prices are likely to come down, just like the did for the Nintendo 64

I doubt it will take that long to break the copy protection schemes. With pure software people do it in days after a release. I'd be suprised if it takes more than a couple of months.

[WolvenOne]

Lupin, yes, but people won't have Blu-Ray burners until awhile after the consoles release. Even if they're availble it'll take time for them to thuroughly infuse the market.

Plus, the PS3 has hardware based anti-piracy protection that's built right into the CPU. It'll be more difficult to bypass it this time around.

[Lupin]

Lupin, yes, but people won't have Blu-Ray burners until awhile after the consoles release. Even if they're availble it'll take time for them to thuroughly infuse the market.

Blu-Ray will be out before the PS3 comes out. HP will be releasing Blu-Ray drives in their home PC's in late 2005.

http://www.hp.com/hpinfo/newsroom/press ... 1115c.html

HP intends to continue to work with the other companies of the Blu-ray Disc Association to complete the format technology and develop the drives. HP plans to introduce Blu-ray Disc technology in late 2005 in select media center PCs, desktop PCs, personal workstations and digital entertainment devices followed by notebooks in early 2006.

Plus, the PS3 has hardware based anti-piracy protection that's built right into the CPU. It'll be more difficult to bypass it this time around.

I doubt it will be directly into the CPU, more likely in ROM. and that would be easy to replace.

[WolvenOne]

A: it takes time for Blu-Ray disks to permeate the market.

B: No it's IN the CPU, it's a major feature that was engineered into it by IBM. Trust me I've followed the development of the Cell Processer closely.

[Lupin]

A: it takes time for Blu-Ray disks to permeate the market.

That's not what you said. You said that Blu-Ray wouldn't be avaliable until the consoles come out. They will be available before the conoles come out. Not to mention that only the causal pirates use burners. The ones companies are usually worried about press their discs.

B: No it's IN the CPU, it's a major feature that was engineered into it by IBM. Trust me I've followed the development of the Cell Processer closely.

ROM in the cpu is still ROM, and can be subverted.

[WolvenOne]

No there doesn't appear to be any on chip ROM chip as far as I can tell by looking at the Blueprints. I'm assuming that the security is being implimented differently.

And no, at no point did I say that they wouldn't be available at the release of the console. I've just re-read all the posts and there's nothing even similer to that stated.

What I have stated is that it'd take time for Blu-Ray to permeate the market and that it'd time some time for piracy folks to figure out a way around the on-chip security functions. Even if some pirate out there does figure out how to do it in six months or so, it'll take time for that knowledge to become applicable to other lesser skilled people.

So as I've said, first year isn't likely to see MAJOR copy-protection problems.

[Lupin]

You're not giving pirates anywhere near enough credit. The OS X dev kit release was released on June 6th. It had hardware DRM. Within a couple of weeks the DRM had been circumvented.

Even if some pirate out there does figure out how to do it in six months or so, it'll take time for that knowledge to become applicable to other lesser skilled people.

No because the first thing that person is going to do is post how they cracked it on the internet, with specific tools and methods. (You can't win the [spoiler]dick[/spoiler]-waving contest if nobody can verify your results.) Then the information will spread like wildfire. (Like it usually does.)

[WolvenOne]

You're giving pirateers too much credit.

What you're saying is that the following will happen within a year of launch.

*Blu Ray drives will become common place in the PC environment.*

*Hackers will both find ways around the on chip anti piracy and find a way to make it easy for uneducated joe-schmoe pirateers to do the same.*

Considering that Blu-Ray drives are going to be quite pricey early in thier lifespan, it's unlikely we'll see them become common place within a year of the consoles launch. Heck we haven't even finished the transition to DVD burners on the PC yet, so you're expecting a lot.

Also, there's plenty of platforms that've gotten away without piracy in the past. Even in recent history.

[Lupin]

You're giving pirateers too much credit.

What you're saying is that the following will happen within a year of launch.

*Blu Ray drives will become common place in the PC environment.*

*Hackers will both find ways around the on chip anti piracy and find a way to make it easy for uneducated joe-schmoe pirateers to do the same.*

No, all Blu-Ray has to do is become common place among the people who want to pirate the games, which is a smaller and more technically apt subset of the PC environment.

Considering that Blu-Ray drives are going to be quite pricey early in thier lifespan, it's unlikely we'll see them become common place within a year of the consoles launch. Heck we haven't even finished the transition to DVD burners on the PC yet, so you're expecting a lot.

Most of my friends, the target audience for these consoles, already have DVD burners. Personally I was looking at DVD burners back when DVD itself hit. And the've already had them for a good long while now. Blu-Ray isn't going to be that expensive or companies like HP wouldn't be planning to put them in mass-market PC's and laptops.

[Shadow Wulf]

Undercrediting hackers wolvenone, These are hard core proffesionals that even the government fears enough to have some cyber team to counter them.

[WolvenOne]

Lupin, piracy on the PS2 didn't become significant until DVD burners became more common. The hard-core Pirateers you talk of cause very VERY little damage, it's when piracy filters down into the more common computer user that it really causes damages.

[Terastas]

Game development costs eventually will reach that price if things are left unchanged. However, in any industry, things are rarely left alone.

What will eventually happen is that, instead of hiring additional software programmers to handle the most menial of tasks, a company will eventually write a program that handles said task automatically. This program will eventually either be distributed to other gaming companies for profit, or the other companies will develop their own. Therefore, though the gaming software itself may be more complex, the programs they used to write those games will have evolved as well.

Case in point: Newgrounds. After a gaming program has been distributed throughout the industry, it eventually makes it onto the open market. 2D side-scrollers, once a product only a major distributor could create, can now be made on your home PCs.

So while the games themselves may become more complex, future inovations in programming will keep the costs down.